CWRF模式在中国夏季极端降水模拟的误差订正          下载免费PDF全文

董晓云  余锦华  梁信忠  马圆 《应用气象学报》2019,30(2):223-232

利用1980—2015年6—8月我国逐日降水观测数据评估CWRF模式（Climate-Weather Research and Forecasting model）多种参数化方案对我国夏季日降水的模拟能力,并考察累积概率变换偏差订正法（CDFt）的订正效果。通过将广义帕累托分布（GPD）引入到偏差订正模型中,提出针对极端降水的累积概率变换偏差订正法（XCDFt）,检验和评估其对极端降水订正的适用性。结果显示:CWRF模式微物理过程选用Morrison-aerosol参数化方案组合对我国降水场的模拟较好,CDFt订正效果良好;XCDFt偏差订正模型能够较好地提取模式建模与验证时期变化信号,订正后相比订正前与观测极端降水的概率分布更为接近;经过XCDFt订正后华南、华中和华北地区20年一遇的极端降水重现水平较模拟值更接近观测值,可为CWRF模式提高极端降水的业务预测水平提供参考。  相似文献   

Tropospheric biennial oscillation of summer monsoon rainfall over East Asia and its association with ENSO   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Yunyun Liu  Zeng-Zhen Hu  Arun Kumar  Peitao Peng  Dan C. Collins  Bhaskar Jha 《Climate Dynamics》2015,45(7-8):1747-1759

  相似文献   

Accounting for radiative forcing from albedo change in future global land-use scenarios     

Andrew D. Jones  Katherine V. Calvin  William D. Collins  James Edmonds 《Climatic change》2015,131(4):691-703

  相似文献   

Regional climate modelling in CLARIS-LPB: a concerted approach towards twentyfirst century projections of regional temperature and precipitation over South America     

E. Sánchez  S. Solman  A. R. C. Remedio  H. Berbery  P. Samuelsson  R. P. Da Rocha  C. Mourão  L. Li  J. Marengo  M. de Castro  D. Jacob 《Climate Dynamics》2015,45(7-8):2193-2212

  相似文献   

CWRF对青藏高原气温和降水模拟效果的综合评估          下载免费PDF全文

徐蓉蓉  梁信忠  段明铿 《大气科学学报》2021,44(1):104-117

利用CWRF(Climate-Weather Research and Forecasting model)对中国区域气候的31 a多物理集合模拟试验,分析了该模式对青藏高原气温和降水的模拟效果及其对水平分辨率和物理过程参数化方案的敏感性。结果表明:1)CWRF降尺度全面改善了全球模式对高原气温和降水的模拟,使气温年循环的均方根误差减小近1℃,月降水量年循环的均方根误差减小10~40 mm,同时显著提高了各月气温和降水与实测资料年际变化的相关系数,最高提升0.6;2)模式分辨率对降水模拟有显著影响,不同分辨率模拟降水差异高达60 mm(54%),模拟偏差随分辨率提高先降低后上升,转折在30 km左右;3)物理过程参数化方案对气温和降水模拟影响显著,不同方案模拟的各月平均气温相差1~4℃,夏季各月降水量相差20~100 mm,其中对气温模拟影响最大的是辐射方案,对降水影响最大的是积云方案。本文为CWRF局地优化对物理参数化及水平分辨率等如何选择提供了依据。  相似文献   

Sensitivity of the MODIS fire detection algorithm (MOD14) in the savanna region of the Northern Territory,Australia     

《ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing》2013

Fire detection using satellites is an important source of information for fire management, ecological studies and emission estimates. However, little is known about the minimum sizes of fires that are being detected. This paper presents an approach using fire radiative power estimated from MODIS satellite data to determine the detection threshold for fire-prone savannas in Northern Australia. The results indicate that fires with an active flaming area 100–300 m² can be detected in the study region. It is also shown that the algorithm is slightly more sensitive at night. As expected the detection threshold shows strong view angle dependence. While this study has been undertaken in the savannas of Northern Australia, the results should be transferable to other savanna regions worldwide and other areas where fires are not obscured by a dense tree canopy.  相似文献   

The distribution of velocity and energy of saltating sand grains in a wind tunnel     

《Geomorphology》2001,36(3-4):155-165

Sand transport by wind is a special case of two-phase flow of gas and solids, with saltating grains accounting for about 75% of the transport rate. This form of flow is not only the main external agent moulding aeolian landforms but also the motive force responsible for transport, sorting and deposition of aeolian sediments. High-speed multiflash photography is an effective method of studying the distribution of velocity and energy of saltating grains within the boundary layer of wind tunnel. The experimental wind shear velocities were set at 0.63, 0.64, 0.74 and 0.81 ms⁻¹. The statistical study of the results showed that there is a power function relation between mean velocity and height of saltating grains. As the height is divided into 0.5-cm intervals, the sand grain velocities at various levels are consistent with the Pearson VII distribution pattern. The variations in kinetic energy and total energy of sand grains with height accord with the pulse peak modified with power term (Pulsepow) law; the maximum values occur at heights of 6 cm or so and tend to shift upward with increasing wind velocity.  相似文献   

Getting from here to there – energy technology transformation pathways in the EMF27 scenarios     

Volker Krey  Gunnar Luderer  Leon Clarke  Elmar Kriegler 《Climatic change》2014,123(3-4):369-382

Based on a large number of energy-economic and integrated assessment models, the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 27 study systematically explores the implications of technology cost and availability for feasibility and macroeconomic costs of energy system transformations toward climate stabilization. At the highest level, the technology strategy articulated in all the scenarios in EMF27 includes three elements: decarbonization of energy supply, increasing the use of low-carbon energy carriers in end-use, and reduction of energy use. The way that the scenarios differ is in the degree to which these different elements of strategy are implemented, the timing of those implementations, and the associated macroeconomic costs. The study also discusses the value of individual technologies for achieving climate stabilization. A robust finding is that the unavailability of carbon capture and storage and limited availability of bioenergy have the largest impact on feasibility and macroeconomic costs for stabilizing atmospheric concentrations at low levels, mostly because of their combined ability to remove carbon from the atmosphere. Constraining options in the electric sector such as nuclear power, wind and solar energy in contrast has a much smaller impact on the cost of mitigation.  相似文献   

Effects of tropical instability wave (TIW)-induced surface wind feedback in the tropical Pacific Ocean     

Rong-Hua Zhang 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(1-2):467-485

Tropical instability waves (TIWs) arise from oceanic instability in the eastern tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, having a clear atmospheric signature that results in coupled atmosphere–ocean interactions at TIW scales. In this study, the extent to which TIW-induced surface wind feedback influences the ocean is examined using an ocean general circulation model (OGCM). The TIW-induced wind stress (τ_TIW) part is diagnostically determined using an empirical τ_TIW model from sea surface temperature (SST) fields simulated in the OGCM. The interactively represented TIW wind tends to reduce TIW activity in the ocean and influence the mean state, with largest impacts during TIW active periods in fall and winter. In December, the interactive τ_TIW forcing induces a surface cooling (an order of ?0.1 to ?0.3 °C), an increased heat flux into the ocean, a shallower mixed layer and a weakening of the South Equatorial Current in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Additionally, the TIW wind effect yields a pronounced latitudinal asymmetry of sea level field across the equator, and a change to upper thermal structure, characterized by a surface cooling and a warming below in the thermocline, leading to a decreased temperature gradient between the mixed layer and the thermocline. Processes responsible for the τ_TIW–induced cooling effects are analyzed. Vertical mixing and meridional advection are the two terms in the SST budget that are dominantly affected by the TIW wind feedback: the cooling effect from the vertical mixing on SST is enhanced, with the maximum induced cooling in winter; the warming effect from the meridional advection is reduced in July–October, but enhanced in November–December. Additional experiments are performed to separate the relative roles the affected surface momentum and heat fluxes play in the cooling effect on SST. This ocean-only modeling work indicates that the effect of TIW-induced wind feedback is small but not negligible, and may need to be adequately taken into account in large-scale climate modeling.  相似文献   

Interannual and interdecadal variability of ocean temperature along the equatorial Pacific in conjunction with ENSO   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Arun Kumar  Zeng-Zhen Hu 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(5-6):1243-1258

In this paper, the leading modes of ocean temperature anomalies (OTA) along the equatorial Pacific Ocean are analyzed and their connection with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and interdecadal variation is investigated. The first two leading modes of OTA are connected with the different phases of the canonical ENSO and display asymmetric features of ENSO evolution. The third leading mode depicts a tripole pattern with opposite variation of OTA above the thermocline in the central Pacific to that along the thermocline in the eastern and western Pacific. This mode is found to be associated with so-called ENSO-Modoki. Insignificant correlations of this mode with the first two leading modes suggest that ENSO-Modoki may be a mode that is independent to the canonical ENSO and also has longer time scales compared with the canonical ENSO. The fourth mode reflects a warming (cooling) tendency above (below) the thermocline since 2000. Both the first and second modes have a large contribution to the interdecadal change in thermocline during 1979–2012. Also, the analysis also documents that both ENSO and OTA shifted into higher frequency since 2000 compared with that during 1979–1999. Interestingly, the ENSO-Modoki related OTA mode does not have any trend or significant interdecadal shift during 1979–2012. In addition, it is shown that first four EOF modes seem robust before and after 1999/2000, suggesting that the interdecadal shift of the climate system in the tropical Pacific is mainly a frequency shift and the changes in spatial pattern are relatively small, although the mean states over two periods experienced some significant changes.  相似文献